![]() A person who is prone to this bias might have a false sense of superiority, an overestimation of his intelligence or a false overconfidence about the effectiveness of his thoughts and decisions. ![]() Harboring the hindsight bias can have a negative effect on the many facets of a person’s life, in majority, those that have to do with decision-making. Not only that, the person is also overcome with the feeling that he had predicted the result all along. The discrepancy in the poll results from before and after the vote proved that when one is faced with the final results, the outcome suddenly seems predictable and obvious. A week after Thomas’s confirmation, these students were asked to recall what they had predicted, and it was found that 78% of students said that they were sure he would be approved. 58% of the students predicted that he would be approved. Senate vote on Supreme Court nominee, Clarence Thomas. Students from Calvin college were asked to predict the U. In the third, the predictability is further enhanced by the fact that the event could have been foreseen by him/her (I knew it would happen).Īn experiment was conducted by psychologists Martin Bolt and John Brink in 1991 to illustrate the phenomenon of hindsight bias. In the second, the person believes that the event was inevitable (It had to happen). In the first, there is memory distortion, in which a person distorts and wrongly remembers an opinion or judgment from earlier (I said it will happen). Psychologists say that hindsight bias works on 3 levels. Thus, in a way, it is like a prophesy… after it has happened like saying that it was pretty obvious something was going to happen, after it has happened. However, once the outcome is known, people are overcome with this feeling of ‘I knew it’, in the sense that they forget all about the uncertainty that they harbored before and they only concentrate on this feeling that they had known what was going to happen. It’s really interesting how this theory comes into play and how the human mind works―when a person is waiting for the outcome of something, there is always this feeling of uncertainty, of not being sure about the results, even though they might guess what the outcome could be. ![]() Have you ever had an experience where you (or anyone else) has looked upon the outcome of something and said ‘I knew it’? This, right here, is the workings of the hindsight bias. The simplest way to explain the occurrence of this phenomenon is with the term ‘I knew it’. The following sections of this PsycholoGenie article will give you a detailed understanding of what the hindsight bias entails, the effects of the same, and real life examples to understand it better.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |